Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection

The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact developed the Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida in 2011. The projection was updated in 2015. In 2019, the Compact convened an ad hoc Sea Level Rise Work Group to update the projection, composed of scientific experts within the academic community, as well as staff from local, regional, and federal government.

The Compact’s Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection and accompanying guidance report are accepted or adopted by each of the four-counties’ Boards of County Commissioners. The 2019 projection and accompanying guidance report have been accepted or adopted by all four of the Compact counties.

The projection is reviewed and updated every five years, or sooner, as a result of ongoing advances in scientific knowledge and modeling via the peer-reviewed literature on global climate change.

The projection is intended to inform adaptation strategies and policies, and is offered to ensure that all major infrastructure projects throughout the Southeast Florida region have the same basis for design and construction relative to future sea level.

Prior to producing a unified projection for the region, the diversity of local sea level rise projections was a barrier to achieving regionally consistent adaptation strategies and policies, and effectively influencing supportive policies at the state and federal level.

2019 Compact Unified Sea Level Rise Projection

This Unified Sea Level Rise projection for Southeast Florida updated in 2019 projects the anticipated range of sea level rise for the region from 2000 to 2120. The projection can be used to estimate future potential sea level elevations in Southeast Florida and the relative change in sea level from today to a point in the future. The guidance report contains directions and specific examples of how the projection can be used by local governments, planners, designers, engineers, and developers.