Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (the Compact) undertook a review of its 2019 Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection (“2019 Projection”) vis-à-vis updates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, as well as observational trends in the sea level in the region. Based on the review, the Compact provides this 2024 statement as guidance for the continued use of the 2019 Regionally Unified Projection in Southeast Florida as a basis for resilience planning, design, and construction. The Compact intends to revisit this guidance in the future as new science and modeling become available.

The Compact has consistently indicated it would review and, if necessary, update its Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida every five years, or sooner, as a result of ongoing advances in scientific knowledge and modeling via the peer-reviewed literature on global climate change. The Compact first developed the projection in 2011 and has since updated the projection twice, in 2015 and 2019, through the engagement of an ad hoc Sea Level Rise Work Group, composed of scientific experts within the academic community, as well as staff from local, regional, and federal government.

The Compact’s Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection and accompanying guidance report are accepted or adopted by each of the four counties’ Boards of County Commissioners. The 2019 projection and accompanying guidance report have been accepted or adopted by all four of the Compact counties.

The projection is intended to inform adaptation strategies and policies, and is offered to ensure that all major infrastructure projects throughout the Southeast Florida region have the same basis for design and construction relative to future sea level.

Prior to producing a unified projection for the region, the diversity of local sea level rise projections was a barrier to achieving regionally consistent adaptation strategies and policies, and effectively influencing supportive policies at the state and federal level.

2019 Compact Unified Sea Level Rise Projection

This Unified Sea Level Rise projection for Southeast Florida updated in 2019 projects the anticipated range of sea level rise for the region from 2000 to 2120. The projection can be used to estimate future potential sea level elevations in Southeast Florida and the relative change in sea level from today to a point in the future. The guidance report contains directions and specific examples of how the projection can be used by local governments, planners, designers, engineers, and developers.